Big battle coming up in Donbass?

Russia and Ukraine send troops to the east

Russia’s main goal now is to “liberate” the Donbass region. Unlike the early stages of the six-week conflict, this shift is forcing Ukrainian forces to fight a war involving tanks, artillery and ground fighters. flat, allowing Russia to take advantage of its superiority in military equipment.

Video posted by Russian media shows Russian tanks, artillery and other forces withdrawing from areas around Kiev and heading east in recent days. According to the assessment of US intelligence, Russia seems to be preparing for a major military operation from Izyum to the city of Dnipro, which is considered a checkpoint opening the way to other cities of the Donbass region. Meanwhile, Ukraine also began to move combat units from the northern region to the Donbass.

Currently, fighting along the line in Donbass and surrounding areas is still taking place every day. Russian forces are trying to push the Ukrainian army out of southern Izyum. Many military analysts believe that the timing of a major military operation will depend on the Russian side. Moscow could push ahead with a major offensive using its existing forces in the eastern region or wait a few more weeks to redeploy units in northern Ukraine.

Ukrainian President Zelensky has appealed to the West for urgent help in the face of this new round of conflict, warning that Russia has not yet “gained its ambition to subjugate Ukraine”. “Russia is still capable of deploying new armored vehicles and deploying new military forces on our soil. That means we need more sanctions and Ukraine needs more weapons,” Zelensky said in a video message.

Ukrainian authorities over the weekend urged people in government-controlled areas of eastern Ukraine to use all available means to leave immediately.

To prepare for the upcoming military operation, Russia has appointed Army General Alexander Dvornikov, Commander of the Southern Military District as commander of its military operation in Ukraine. Dvornikov, 61, served as the first commander of Russia’s military campaign in Syria.

Russia has not made an official announcement about General Dvornikov’s role, but observers say that as a veteran commander on the battlefield, Dvornikov can help improve coordination in the military campaign. in the Donbass region.

The Wall Street Journal quoted some military analysts as saying that the Russian military has so far not been able to easily achieve its goals in Ukraine in the early stages of the war when Moscow launched an attack on Ukraine from many directions by the enemy forces. The commanders of Russia’s four military districts acted independently and without coordination. Therefore, Moscow desperately needed a centralized commander on the battlefield.

According to Western arguments, the strong resistance of the Ukrainian army made it impossible for Russia to gain control of the capital Kiev and nearby cities. But the spokesman for the Russian Defense Ministry explained, Moscow does not intend to massively attack these cities, it wants to attack Ukrainian forces to the extent that they cannot deploy to the Donbass. The official confirmed that Russia has completed the first phase, which includes the goal of “binding” enemy forces and equipment while forcing them to defend in large population centers such as Kiev.

According to the assessment, the situation is more favorable for Russia in the Donbass front. Shorter supply routes and concentration on a certain area allow Russia to conduct air support more effectively. Michael Kofman, a Russian military expert at CNA, a Washington think tank, said the decision to shift focus to the east appeared to be a sign that Russia was “adjusting its operational goals” to prioritize its operations. prioritize where they can actually achieve success.

Moscow changes tactics, Kiev wants heavy weapons aid

The different situation in the East, with large formations facing each other instead of attacks by small units as before, is the main reason why Ukraine says it urgently needs heavy weapons. , such as artillery, tanks and anti-aircraft artillery that most Western countries are reluctant to transfer.

Speaking after a meeting with ministers of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization countries last week, Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said: “The war in Donbass will remind you of World War II with its operations. army and large-scale attack, involving thousands of tanks, armored vehicles, aircraft and artillery. Based on what we observed during the Russian preparations, this is not a small-scale operation.”

“Either you help us now, or your help comes too late and a lot of people will die,” Dmytro Kuleba stressed when calling for Western aid.

Ukraine initially offered to hand over Soviet-made heavy weapons that its military was accustomed to using, but amid the protracted conflict and after Russia changed tactics, it relied more on artillery. army, air defense and long-range missiles to launch attacks, Kiev wants to own heavy weapons according to NATO standards.

Currently, Western leaders are increasing military aid to Ukraine. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced on April 9 that he would supply Kiev with 120 new armored vehicles and anti-ship missile systems. The United States announced $400 million in additional military aid to Ukraine this month, in addition to $1.4 billion in aid since the Russia-Ukraine conflict broke out on February 24. The United States has been providing Javelin missiles, Stinger missiles, hundreds of drones and anti-ballistic radars to Ukraine, but does not have any heavy weapons as requested by Kiev. Up to now, only the Czech Republic has supplied Ukraine with T72M tanks dating from the Soviet Union, and Slovakia delivered the S-300 air defense system after receiving the US Patriot missile system.

For its part, Russia has repeatedly warned that countries that provide lethal weapons to Ukraine will be held responsible if these weapons are used during Russia’s military operation in Ukraine. “We have warned the US that pumping weapons to Ukraine from a number of countries is both a dangerous move and makes these convoys a legitimate target,” Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said in mid-March. .

The city of Sloviansk could be the next decisive front. Photo: NYT

The next decisive front

The Russian military is expected to try to stop the advance of Ukrainian forces from approaching the eastern region and establish a link with the units that have been deployed throughout the region before. That means the focus will quickly shift to the city of Sloviansk, 650km east of Kiev, as Russian troops advance from Izium to the Donbass. “Russian efforts to advance from Izyum to gain control of Slovyansk could make it the next key front in the war in Ukraine,” the US Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in a statement.

According to the ISW, “if Russian forces are unable to gain control of Slovyansk, then a Russian frontal assault in the Donbass is unlikely to penetrate Ukraine’s defenses.”

The adviser to Ukraine’s interior minister admitted that the “most difficult situation” facing the country’s forces is in the east. “The situation is very difficult, in the direction of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. This is the pivotal stage of the war. I believe that the outcome of the war will largely depend on the fighting in the eastern region.”

Jonathan Flint, a military researcher at Case Western Reserve University in Cleveland, believes there are two avenues for Russia to try to achieve its new military goals.

Speaking to CNBC, Jonathan Flint said: “One is that Russia will retreat to relative safety, and use this opportunity to rearm, reorganize and strengthen their forces to prepare for an advance. stronger and better organized public into the eastern territories held by Ukraine”. However, this approach is not without risks.

“The other option would be to entrench in these areas, making it impossible for the Ukrainian army to retake them. This move seems more reasonable to Russia. By creating a frozen conflict, Russia is essentially preventing Ukraine from joining the EU or NATO in the future.