The war in eastern Ukraine has long-term consequences for global food security

Russia’s special military operation in Ukraine sent food prices soaring in March to an all-time high, highlighting the global impact of the conflict.

As Moscow refocuses its military efforts in eastern Ukraine, getting ready for the second phase of the operation, analysts have warned of the impact on Ukraine’s food exports.

“We don’t have enough alternatives to fill the gap,” said Roman Slaston, director of the Ukrainian Club of Agricultural Enterprises (UCAB).

Ukraine is the world’s sixth-largest wheat exporter by 2021, with a 10 percent market share, according to the United Nations, and is one of the world’s top exporters of barley and sunflower seeds.

According to the Global Hunger Index, one-third to one-half of bread in Africa and the Middle East is produced from Ukrainian wheat. 47 countries will reach high levels of hunger by 2021, and the war in Ukraine is estimated to bring that number to more than 60 countries by 2022.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukraine would not give up its territory in the east of the country to end hostilities with Russia, and emphasized that Kiev was preparing to introduce tough resistance measures.

If Ukraine loses the Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizka and Khersonska regions, where Russia is planning to build a bridge to Crimea, it would mean the country would be deprived of almost a quarter of its agricultural output, according to data released by the ministry. American Agriculture Collected and Al Jazeera Synthesized.

More importantly, analysts say, the loss of ports in the south will cause crop shortages and cause food prices to soar, affecting global food security.

No port, no export

Last week, Moscow announced that it had seized the strategic port city of Mariupol on the Sea of ​​Azov, an important export hub. Moscow also says it has taken control of Kherson, a port city on the Black Sea and the Dnieper River.

Even in port cities that aren’t the hardest hit, such as Odessa, Russian warships in the Black Sea terrify commercial ships.

Slaston, an NGO that unites more than 130 representatives of the agricultural sector, said that Ukrainian farmers had to transport crops by rail and road to the Western border, but this option did not. really effective.

“For example, sunflower seed exports have now fallen to 15-20% of their pre-war levels. This amount is not enough to supply the global market,” Slaston said.

A report by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) has stated that access to food is an important issue.

FAO economist Monika Tothova told Al Jazeera that 90% of exports passed through ports in the Black Sea and Sea of ​​Azov before the hostilities.

“If Ukraine continues to be unable to export by sea, this will put further pressure on global market prices, at least until other producers (including the European Union and India) ) can enhance,” she said.

The FAO Food Price Index rose 12.6% in March from February, reaching its highest level since its inception in 1990. The Cereal Price Index was 17.1% higher in March due to consequences of the war, while the price of vegetable oil increased by 23.2%.

The agricultural model is gradually changing

Russia’s encroachment in the east, where most vegetables are grown for domestic consumption, will certainly change Ukraine’s agricultural model.

According to Ms. Tothova, if vegetables are no longer sold on the domestic market, farmers in other parts of the country will have to make up for it by using crops that were previously intended for export.

Another difficulty, she added, is that Ukrainian farmers may not have enough fuel to power tractors, plows, combine and delivery trucks because most of the diesel is brought into Ukraine via Belarus. and Russia.

Ukraine depends on fertilizers, a product of which Russia is a major exporter.

Costs this year posted a record 128.1% increase from last year, according to the Fertilizer Price Index, after Moscow’s campaign sent energy prices soaring and put a large chunk of the world’s supply at risk. .

UCAB forecasts this will lead to a change in prices for Ukraine’s spring crops, which include grains such as barley and corn, as well as other crops such as sugar beets, sunflowers and soybeans. .

“We hope Ukraine will soon recapture territories in the east of the country and solve the current difficult problem,” Slaston said.