Expectations of ASEAN – US relations turn page

This conference is attracting the attention of regional and world observers.

Prime Minister at the airport military Andrews, Washington DC, USA Duong Giang

From consensus effort

Answering Thanh Nien, Prof. Yoichiro Sato (international relations expert, Ritsumeikan Asia-Pacific University, Japan) assessed the Special Summit to celebrate the 45th anniversary of ASEAN-US relations as an opportunity. for the two sides to “try to narrow differences on some issues”.

“The discussion between the US and ASEAN can discuss the issue Myanmar but it is not expected to create any new pressure on Myanmar”, Mr. Sato predicted and explained that increasing pressure to resolve the Myanmar issue could push the Southeast Asian parties further away from the conflict. Washington.

In addition, he predicted that the content of the agenda would likely mention the war in Ukraine. “Meeting with some Southeast Asian leaders recently, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida succeeded in finding some diplomatic support and contributed to humanitarian assistance for the people of Ukraine. America will probably focus on coordination policy positive with Southeast Asian countries”, Prof. Sato said.

Also reply YouthMr. Dov S.Zakheim, former Deputy Secretary of Defense of the US and now an expert of the CNA Research Agency (USA), said: “Ukraine war, policy with Russia and China will probably dominate the discussions at this special ASEAN-US Summit.” But he also assessed that most of the ASEAN countries do not want to take sides between Russia and Ukraine (and Western countries).

In fact, due to many influencing factors, both within ASEAN members and outside countries, there is a lack of consensus on the views regarding the parties involved in the war in Ukraine. Meanwhile, the competition between major countries is a challenge for ASEAN countries because it is necessary to ensure a balance between cooperation with other parties without falling into the “competitive trap”, in order to ensure the central role. in the Indo-Pacific region.

Commenting on this issue when answering Thanh Nien, Assoc. importance of cooperation in the Indo-Pacific, but the two sides have significant differences in how to behave in relation to China – a rising power. More specifically, he analyzed: “ASEAN cannot let too much tension in its relationship with China because China has advantages in both economic and military power.”

Replenish important puzzle pieces

Similarly, Associate Professor Nagy expects: “Through commitments on trade, infrastructure, and development assistance, the US can attract ASEAN by building institutions, commercial and diplomatic cooperation to meet the needs of ASEAN countries. problems facing the region. On the other hand, ASEAN will give more support to the US and other countries if the US really makes ASEAN centrality a reality, by boldly acting together and leading a diplomatic initiative. meaningful”.

He added: “Given these facts, the parties will have to compromise on their positions and come up with concrete, sustainable and meaningful initiatives to move the relationship forward. The outlook will dim, even dim as ASEAN is divided from the outside by China and from within because of civil strife, corruption and unprofessionalism. It would be a myth for the US not to make a trade proposal and to continue to be overly securitized about its approach to China.”

Also responding to Thanh Nien, Mr. Carl O.Schuster (former Executive Director of the Joint Intelligence Center – Pacific Command of the US Navy and currently teaching at the University of Hawaii on international relations on international relations) Washington’s policy in recent times towards the Indo-Pacific, where ASEAN plays a central role, almost focuses on military activities but lacks economic and trade cooperation programs.

In fact, the US is absent from important trade agreements in the region. In contrast, China has joined the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (RCEP) and is promoting its accession to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). Meanwhile, the US has withdrawn from the CPTPP since the agreement was still known as the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP).

Therefore, many economists, diplomats and trade experts believe that Washington needs an effective cooperation mechanism that brings together many Asian economies to establish rules of participation for trade and trade. new technology. In particular, shaping an effective economic cooperation network in the Indo-Pacific is essential.

Since then, President Biden’s administration is expected to announce the Economic Framework soon Indo-Pacific is considered an opportunity for ASEAN – US to strengthen cooperation.