Blocked by Turkey, Finland and Sweden “have a door” to join NATO?

Recently, Sweden and Finland announced their intention to join NATO, citing fears of a Russian attack on Ukraine. But the admission of the two countries requires the unanimous consent of all members of the bloc, and the plans of both Sweden and Finland could face major hurdles due to objections from Turkish President Erdogan. .

Turkish military vehicle. Photo: Reuters.

What does Turkey say?

According to Reuters, President Erdogan on May 17 said delegations from Sweden and Finland should not bother asking Turkey to support the application to join NATO. He affirmed that the country would say “no” to the efforts of Sweden and Finland to join NATO, and stressed that any efforts to persuade Ankara to change its position would be futile.

In an earlier statement, Mr. Erdogan also stated that Turkey does not support the possibility of Finland and Sweden joining NATO: “We are monitoring developments regarding Sweden and Finland, but we are watching them. I don’t have a supportive mindset.”

However, Ankara has yet to say whether it will veto the membership of the two countries. Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu on May 15 made a request to Sweden and Finland, including stopping supporting terrorist groups, providing security guarantees and lifting the export ban, in the context of These two countries want to join NATO.

The reason why Ankara opposes

Mr. Erdogan surprised NATO members and two Nordic nations seeking membership by saying that Turkey could not support an expansion of the alliance because Finland and Sweden were “where there are many countries”. terrorist organization”, referring to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK).

The PKK is a political-military organization and armed guerrilla movement of the Kurds, but is listed as a terrorist organization by the United States and Turkey. This party fights for an independent Kurdish state. They have been fighting against Turkey since 1984. The war between the two sides has claimed the lives of 40,000 people.

In recent years, Turkey has conducted many military operations against the PKK. The PKK has a base in northern Iraq and uses it as a springboard to fuel an insurgency in eastern Turkey.

The United States and Sweden have angered President Erdogan by supporting a militia affiliated with the PKK in Syria to fight the Islamic State group. Turkey rebuked the US in February 2021. Two months later, Ankara also summoned the Swedish ambassador to Turkey to protest.

President Erdogan is currently facing many challenges at home, especially the economic crisis caused by rising inflation, as well as the election scheduled to take place in 2023.

His statement may be aimed at winning support among nationalist voters who oppose any association with the PKK, analysts say. In addition, Ankara also complained about other issues related to Sweden and Finland, including concerns about security guarantees and the blocking of arms exports to Turkey.

Can Turkey veto the membership of Sweden and Finland?

The admission of Sweden and Finland to NATO requires the consent of all 30 member states. Therefore, in theory, Turkey can completely prevent the accession of these two countries. However, all three countries have held talks in recent days to resolve the issue.

The US – a country that plays an important role in the alliance, said there was widespread support in the bloc for the accession plan of the two Nordic countries mentioned above.

US Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Karen Donfried said that Erdogan has not officially announced that he will take action against the admission of Sweden and Finland. “Turkey has not yet said it will object to the Swedish application,” Ms. Donfried told reporters.

Finnish Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg and Swedish Foreign Minister Ann Linde at a joint press conference after their meeting at NATO headquarters in Brussels, Belgium January 24. (Source: EPA-EFE)

Did the parties reach an agreement?

Analysts say this is entirely possible. A day after President Erdogan’s statement, Ibrahim Kalin – President Erdogan’s top foreign policy adviser said:

“We are not closing. But we are basically raising this issue as a matter of national security for Turkey.” And White House press secretary Jen Psaki said the Biden administration was “working to clarify Turkey’s position”.

Hours later, Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu held a trilateral meeting with Swedish Foreign Minister Ann Linde and Finnish Foreign Minister Pakka Haavisto, who were invited to the “informal” NATO foreign ministers’ meeting in Berlin to discuss New alliance strategy and agenda related to the Ukraine crisis. After the meeting, Mr. Haavisto said: “I think we will come to an agreement.” On May 15, Finland announced that it would officially join NATO.

When expressing support for the plan of the two Nordic countries, the US wants to send a clear message to Russia that it needs to end the military campaign soon.

Earlier, President Putin spoke out against and said that Sweden and Finland’s accession to NATO could pave the way for World War 3. The warning is serious, but all are predictions. . NATO is probably still testing how far Russia can go.

Meanwhile, Turkey is a rare country in NATO that maintains relatively good relations simultaneously with Russia and Ukraine.

In recent times, Ankara has played the role of mediator between the two sides. Turkey probably does not want to “burn the relationship bridge” with Russia and also does not want NATO to weaken in front of Moscow, so many observers believe that an agreement can be reached if Sweden and Finland offer some concessions.

Will the commitment be kept?

Both Sweden and Finland have opened their doors to people who want to leave Turkey to seek political asylum since the 1970s and are unlikely to change this policy.

The most likely scenario is that the two countries make certain commitments to Turkey such as not allowing any individuals associated with the PKK and its affiliates to seek political asylum.

The question is whether these commitments will be kept. That requires Sweden and Finland to take concrete steps. In the opposite case, President Erdogan and his government can express concern and criticize the above countries for “talking but not keeping”. Once Sweden and Finland are joined, this could deepen divisions within NATO.