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Troubles in Western arms supply to Ukraine and prospects for Russia-Ukraine negotiations

According to Reuters, three US officials and diplomatic sources said the US was concerned about the possibility of an escalation of the war, but still did not want to limit Ukraine’s military activities by geographically restricting the use of military equipment. aid weapons.

Due to the assessment that the Ukrainian military has performed better than expected, the Joe Biden administration and its allies are ready to provide longer-range strike weapons, including the M777 Howitzer howitzer.

Last week they also announced they would deliver Harpoon anti-ship missiles to Ukraine via Denmark.

US officials have even stated that the Biden administration is considering supplying Ukraine with M142 highly mobile multiple rocket launchers (HIMARS) with a range of several hundred kilometers.

But the US is still concerned about the escalation of the war. Last week, US intelligence agencies warned the war was moving in a “more unpredictable and likely direction of escalation”.

US officials say Washington has no intention of directly fighting the military Russia and provide only key intelligence so that the Ukrainian military can precisely strike key targets.

Another official said that between Washington and Kiev there is currently a “consensus” on the use of certain types of military aid weapons.

The troubles in the West supplying weapons to Ukraine and the prospect of Russia-Ukraine negotiations - Photo 1.

Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov warned that the West supplying Ukraine with weapons capable of hitting Russian territory would be an “important step leading to an escalation of the war”.

Currently, Ukraine does not carry out deep air strikes inside Russia, but only on the border. Some diplomats say this shows that Kiev understands the sensitivity of cross-border operations.

Jason Crow, a member of the US House of Representatives Intelligence Committee, said he is not worried about the risk of an escalation of the war and the most important thing right now is to ensure that Ukraine can push back Russian troops inside. mine.

According to a statement on the Russian Foreign Ministry’s website, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov warned the West that providing Ukraine with weapons capable of hitting Russian territory would be an “important step towards war escalation”.

Douglas Lute, a three-star general and former US ambassador to NATO, also believes that there are many Russian military targets inside Ukraine, not thinking that Ukraine can afford to strike across the border, which is also the case. suitable for the purpose of supplying weapons to the West.

But he also acknowledged that if Ukraine changed its strategy and pushed deeper into Russia’s borders, there would be a risk of political division within NATO, although there are no signs of this yet.

The troubles in the West supplying weapons to Ukraine and the prospect of Russia-Ukraine negotiations - Photo 2.

Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmitro Kuleba asked the West to immediately supply Ukraine with multiple rocket launchers.

Mr. Kuleba said at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, that the situation would have been worse if the Ukrainian military did not immediately receive multiple rocket launchers (jet artillery).

He said the absence of these systems would make it impossible for Kiev to retake the strategic city of Kherson and that Russia’s continued control of Kherson could threaten central Ukraine and the southwestern port of Odessa.

The type of multiple-barreled multiple launch rocket system that Mr. Kuleba is referring to is the US-made M270 system, used to fire rockets or tactical missiles.

US media previously reported that the White House was concerned that the supply of M270 would escalate the Russia-Ukraine war, so it refused Kiev’s request.

Meanwhile, the Russian army is currently aggressively attacking Donbass from many directions in order to divide and surround the Ukrainian army.

Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmitro Kuleba on Wednesday (May 25) said the situation in Donbass was very bad and demanded that Western countries immediately provide multiple-barreled rocket launchers.

He said, compared with a month ago, the situation of arms shipments to Ukraine has improved significantly.

Mr. Kuleba said at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, that the situation would have been worse if the Ukrainian military did not immediately receive multiple rocket launchers (jet artillery).

He said the absence of these systems would make it impossible for Kiev to retake the strategic city of Kherson and that Russia’s continued control of Kherson could threaten central Ukraine and the southwestern port of Odessa.

The type of multiple-barreled multiple launch rocket system that Mr. Kuleba is referring to is the US-made M270 system, used to fire rockets or tactical missiles.

US media previously reported that the White House was concerned that the supply of M270 would escalate the Russia-Ukraine war, so it refused Kiev’s request.

The troubles in the West supplying weapons to Ukraine and the prospect of Russia-Ukraine negotiations - Photo 3.

Modern American M270 multiple rocket launcher system that Ukraine is looking for aid.

The Russian-Ukrainian war lasted for more than 90 days, although the battle on the battlefield was still stalemate, but both warring sides had entered a difficult period in terms of resources and had to brace themselves.

On the same day, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree allowing residents of the Russian-controlled southern Ukrainian provinces of Kherson and Zaporozhye to apply for Russian citizenship through a simplified procedure.

Donetsk and Luhansk, pro-Russian separatist regions in eastern Ukraine, launched a similar scheme in 2019, with 770,000 of the 950,000 applicants being approved for Russian citizenship.

The upper house of the Council of the Russian Federation (Parliament) on May 25 passed a controversial bill to abolish the maximum age of service, which means that men over 40 can also be called. join the army.

In Ukraine, although the Zelensky government did not hesitate to “fight to the last”, when the domestic military industry was almost destroyed by the Russian army and Western military aid was “boozy but unreal”, the supply of weapons became an issue.

On May 26, the Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Army, Mr. Zaluzhne, published a post on his personal blog, urging Western partners to accelerate the transfer of weapons to avoid unnecessary casualties to the Ukrainian army. .

The troubles in the West supplying weapons to Ukraine and the prospect of Russia-Ukraine negotiations - Photo 4.

Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Army Zaluzhne called on Western partners to speed up the delivery of weapons to avoid unnecessary casualties to the Ukrainian army.

Mr. Zaluzhny also published videos and photos of the Ukrainian army learning to operate the French CAESAR self-propelled artillery with the meaning of a very clear message: the Ukrainian army immediately needs similar modern heavy weapons on the battlefield, more and more. the better.

“We struggled, but we persevered. We fought for every inch of land, every settlement.

The West has provided weapons and equipment to help us drive the enemy from our homes and we are grateful for their support.

But now we urgently need weapons and equipment that can attack the enemy from a long distance. Please do not delay, because delay will cost the peacekeepers with their lives.”

On the same day, Ukraine’s Ambassador to Germany, Andrei Mernyk, mocked Germany’s slow delivery of weapons to Ukraine on his social media blog with a photo of a “sluggish” snail with a bullet in its back. , with the caption: “The German weapons are on their way”.

The troubles in the West supplying weapons to Ukraine and the prospect of Russia-Ukraine negotiations - Photo 5.

Ukraine’s ambassador to Germany Melnyk mocked the delay in German military aid.

However, after the first wave of military aid to Ukraine succeeded in “depleting inventories”, Western countries (especially Central and Western European countries) were asked to take out the types of military aid. their active main weapon, or spend more money to buy “sacrificial” advanced weapons for Ukraine, they are very reluctant.

Moreover, many European countries are still shy and do not want to continue “contributing fire”. The protracted war has caused “psychological fatigue”, and the energy crisis and soaring prices have fueled public complaints, and antiwar voices have emerged in the West.

Obviously, Ukraine, which claims to be “fighting on the front lines defending Europe”, is always dissatisfied and criticized the support and effectiveness of “comrades” in the rear.

Former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, speaking at the World Economic Forum Davos, called on the Kiev government to make appropriate concessions in exchange for a peace agreement, which also reflects the realistic thinking of some sections. significant population in Western society.

Several senior Ukrainian officials, including President Zelensky, reacted strongly to Kissinger’s comments.

However, Kissinger’s clear statement certainly poured cold water on the Kiev government – leaning against a fallen wall, leaning against a tree, Ukraine must make its rational choices based on geopolitical realities. , although this choice is cruel and painful.

The troubles in the West supplying weapons to Ukraine and the prospect of Russia-Ukraine negotiations - Photo 7.

Former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger called on the Kiev government to make appropriate concessions with Russia in exchange for a peace agreement.

The window for peace talks opens again.

But given the principled positions of Russia and Ukraine still have major differences, plus the hindrance of major outside powers, can this process of negotiation, which has been interrupted many times, achieve a breakthrough? Whether or not it actually breaks is still a big mystery.

Perhaps sensing changes in Western public opinion trends, the Kiev authorities have begun to soften these days.

Foreign Minister Kuleba said on May 25 that Ukraine does not have any preconditions for the resumption of diplomatic negotiations with Russia.

President Zelensky also expressed his willingness to talk directly with Putin on the same day, but that Russian troops need to withdraw to the border before the war.

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