The River Siverskiy Donets cuts through eastern Ukraine, hindering Russia’s advance, but also preventing Kiev’s forces from regaining territory.
War at Ukraine In its third month, Russian forces have yet to meet the minimum goal set by President Vladimir Putin earlier, when they have not captured any more strategic targets other than the Donbass region in eastern Ukraine.
In eastern Ukraine, Russian forces have controlled about 80% of the territory and are aiming to completely drive Ukrainian defense units out of the two provinces of Lugansk and Donetsk. Meanwhile, Ukrainian military units, although weakened after weeks of fierce fighting, still tried to hold back and separate Russian forces.
This situation causes the eastern Ukraine battlefield to form two distinct front lines, with the natural boundary being the River Siverskiy Donets flowing in the northwest – southeast direction, bisecting the Donbass region, impeding the advance of both sides. .
A Russian pontoon bridge is destroyed near a residential area of Bilohorivka in Lugansk province, Ukraine on May 10. Image: BlackSky.
According to US officials, Russia has about 100 battalion-level battle groups (BTGs) in Ukraine, each with about 1,000 troops. About 20 reserve BTGs are assembling near the Russian border, ready to support the battlefield. In Lugansk and Donetsk, where Russia has focused its combat operations in the second phase of the special military operation, they have yet to control any major cities other than Mariupol.
However, US officials say the situation may be about to change, after Russian forces repeatedly shelled targets along the Lugansk industrial belt, including the towns of Severodonetsk and Rubizhne.
After weeks of intense shelling, Ukrainian forces abandoned the defensive perimeter in the town of Rubizhne. Fighters from the Russian Republic of Chechnya and the separatists in Lugansk have taken control of the town, which has become almost empty.
The loss of Rubizhne made the defense of the Ukrainian army in the city of Severodonetsk more vulnerable. If the Ukrainian army cannot withstand the advance of Russian forces in Severodonetsk, they will have to fall back, forming a new line of defense deeper in the territory.
In that situation, Russian forces could advance in two directions from the north and east, creating a pincer stance that would block the resistance of Ukrainian military units in the Donbass.
But the Russian advance from the north encountered Ukraine’s natural defense line, the River Siverskyi Donets. This river originates in Russia, flows into Ukraine, then returns to Russian territory and joins the Don River, creating a very complex terrain with many swamps, mudflats and horseshoe lakes. This type of terrain is likened to a nightmare for any military campaign.
In order to cross the River Siverskyi Donets as quickly as possible, Russian forces mobilized engineers to bridge the pontoon bridge, sending an armored formation to the west bank to encircle the Ukrainian army. However, Ukrainian forces also seem to be aware of this plan and prepare a response plan.
Russian tanks cross the River Siverskiy Donets while participating in a special military operation in Ukraine in a video released on April 9. Video: Russian Defense Forces.
Footage taken by drone shows Ukrainian artillery ambushing positions Russian forces bridged over the river. The shells that fell were very accurate, suggesting that the Ukrainian forces were likely to already have coordinates in the sections of the river they identified as the easiest Russian forces to build pontoon bridges.
Recently released satellite images show that at least three pontoon bridges over the River Siverskyi Donets were destroyed and Russian forces suffered many losses in their attempts to cross the river. The Ukrainian military said at least one Russian BTG was neutralized, with about 73 tanks and armor destroyed while crossing the river.
Ukrainian artillery ambushes the Russian convoy crossing the River Siverskyi Donets. Video: BritishIntelligence.
Farther west, Russian forces are believed to have crossed the Siverskyi Donets river near the town of Lyman, but it is unclear the size of the force and whether they will hold the area for long. Sloviansk, a city southwest of the town of Lyman, is considered a strategic target of Russian forces and where Ukraine deploys a deep defense line.
To continue advancing in the region, Russian forces need to maintain supplies from across the border. This supply route runs from Belgorod, Russia to Kupiansk, Ukraine and further south. The Ukrainian side seems determined to cut off this supply line and regain control over areas to the north and east of Kharkov, making the city less vulnerable to Russian shelling.
Ukrainian forces are said to be advancing on the west bank of the River Siverskyi Donets and retaking control of the town of Staryi Saltiv. However, the River Siverskyi Donets also became a natural obstacle preventing Ukrainian forces from advancing further east.
The pontoon bridge and Russian tanks were destroyed during a failed attempt to cross the River Siverskyi Donets. Image: CNN.
Meanwhile, the battlefield situation in southern Ukraine has changed little. Russia controls significant areas in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia provinces, but has not moved further north. Russian forces continue to raid the city of Odessa and other coastal areas still controlled by Ukraine.
US intelligence estimates that Russia will not seek to control the entire southern coast of Ukraine, but will instead fortify the land corridor from the Crimean peninsula to Ukraine’s eastern border, as well as seek to annex it. Kherson province into the territory.
US intelligence director Avril Haines said both Russia and Ukraine “believe they can continue to make progress militarily, so we don’t see a viable negotiating path forward, at least in the short term, at least. term”. “Over the next few months, hostilities could take a more unpredictable turn and seem likely to escalate,” Haines said.
River Siverskiy Donets in the Don River system. Graphics: Wikimedia.
Nguyen Tien (According to CNN)
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